A new report published by Ember on Thursday revealed that the world could reach the peak of power emissions this year. The analysis covers the first half of 2023, 78 countries worldwide, and 92% of the global power demand.

Data analyzed by Ember shows that major economies saw drops in power emissions with the biggest fall being reported in the EU (-17%), followed by the US (-8,6%) and Japan(-12%). In India, emissions rose by 3,7% while China’s emissions increased by 7,9% “in large part due to poor hydro conditions.”

Overall, global emissions from the power sector were just 0,2% higher compared to the first half of 2022 despite strong solar and wind generation as well as reduced power demand. The small increase is mainly attributable to “hydro output falling dramatically due to drought.”

According to Ember, increased power generation from wind and solar “avoided 142 MtCO2 emissions.” Still, adverse hydro conditions prevented emissions from falling as fossil fuels had to compensate for the deficit caused by droughts.  “Had hydro generation remained at the same levels seen in H1-2022…. fossil generation would have fallen 168 TWh, leading to a fall in power sector emissions of 2.9%.”  

Ember warns about the deficit created by adverse hydro conditions, “likely exacerbated by climate change”.  Hydro generation, which is the largest source among renewables, saw a historic fall of 8,5% due to droughts.  

In a separate report, the International Energy Agency noted that “the capacity factor of global hydropower has been a declining trend over the last decade. It has fallen from an average of 38% in 1990-2016, to about 36% in 2020-2022.”